laststandonzombieisland

The Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD 4) conducts flight operations while the ship transits the Tsushima Strait, Sept. 18, 2024. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class James Finney)

In case you missed it, Gen. Eric Smith, the 39th Commandant of the Marine Corps, recently came out and publicly reiterated that the Corps has to maintain three deployed Marine Expeditionary Units aboard Navy afloat Amphibious Ready Groups— the classic ARG/MEU combo — for sustained deterrence and global response.

Which is refreshing.

The Corps’ North Star must remain a steady 3.0 ARG/MEU presence: three continuous, three-amphibious warship formations forward deployed—one from the East Coast, one from the West, and one patrolling from Okinawa, Japan. (If you ask our combatant commanders what they need, the answer isn’t a total of three ARG/MEUs; it’s closer to five or six.) 3.0 is the minimum required to provide our nation and the Joint Force with a capability that can serve as both a warfighting formation and a cross-service integrator. It’s what keeps pressure on our adversaries, supports the maritime fight, and gives combatant commanders and national decision makers scalable options they can employ without delay to buy time, create decision-space, and if required to do so, be first to fight.

Seven standing MEUs routinely deploy.

They include the CONUS-based 11th, 13th, and 15th MEUs on the West Coast (of I Marine Expeditionary Force/1st Marine Division based at Camps Pendleton/29 Palms).

And the 22d, 24th, and 26th MEUs on the East Coast (of the II MEF/2nd Marine Division based at Camp Lejeune).

The 31st MEU is forward assigned and located in Okinawa, part of the III MEF/3rd MarDiv.

The problem is that, while the Marines may have seven MEUs and three divisions on paper, they only have 19 active duty infantry battalions, grouped in five full-strength (3 bn) and two understrength (2 bn) regiments, to flesh them out. Each of the regiments has its own HHC and logistics battalion.

Pendleton/29 Palms has 11 infantry battalions: the three battalion-strong 1st, 5th, and 7th Marine Regiments, as well as 2nd Bn/4th Marines, and 3/4th. Lejeune has eight infantry battalions: the full three-battalion 2nd and 6th Marine Regiments, along with 1/8th and 2/8th. The reason why Pendleton has three more battalions than Lejeune is that they forward deploy three battalions rotationally to III MEF/3rd MarDiv to Okinawa/Darwin, Australia (one of which forms the 31st MEU).

III MEF/3rd MarDiv also includes the Corps’ two 1,800-man MLRs: 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment (formerly the historic 3rd Marine Regiment, from 1914 through 2022) and the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment (formerly the 12th Marine Regiment, from 1927-45 & 1952-2023). These missile-armed Westpac Marines will be the so-called “Stand in Force” designed to give the Chinese navy heartburn from remote forward locations.

U.S. Marines and Sailors with 3d Littoral Combat Team, 3d Marine Littoral Regiment, 3d Marine Division, pose for a unit photo before a ceremony on Marine Corps Base Hawaii, Nov. 26, 2024. At the ceremony, 3d Marine Littoral Regiment, 3d Marine Division officially received the Navy/Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System from Marine Corps Systems Command, becoming the first U.S. Marine Corps unit to field the system. The NMESIS provides 3d MLR with enhanced sea denial capabilities and maritime lethality. (U.S. Marine Corps photo illustration by Sgt. Jacqueline C. Parsons) (This image was created using photo merging techniques.)

Plus, each of the three active MarDivs has a dedicated HQ, Recon, LAV, Landing Support, Supply, Transportation Support, Medical, and Dental battalions, as well as fires, amtrac, and engineer units.

So, with three deployed MEUs, basic 1:3 workup logic (one deployed, three recovering/rebuilding/working up) would make it obvious that the Marines need at least 12 infantry battalions to support them. The five “extra” battalions leave a slim elasticity for fly-out operations and reinforcement. Gratefully, the 4th Marine Regiment, which was scheduled to be reorganized into the 4th MLR in 2027, will stay infantry, “preserving its core mission while preparing to respond to potential crisis and conflict.”

The October Force Design update from the Commandant noted, “We determined through the Campaign of Learning that two MLRs and one reinforced Marine Infantry Regiment in III MEF is the optimal force composition to meet III MEF’s missions and objectives.”

Bottom line meant that turning the 4th Marines into 4th MLR would have made the 31st MEU untenable.

So it’s a good sign that Force Design 2030 is holding at two rather than three MLRs, as it at least preserves the ability to put 3 MEUs in play around the world while having a modicum of reserve infantry battalions on hand.

Now, as far as the ARG part of the equation, each MEU is built around three ships (LHA/LHD and two LSD/LPDs), which means that, on a 36-month 1:2 workup/availability basis, the Navy would need to have a theoretical 9 LHD/LHAs and 27 LSD/LPDs (36 hulls) to keep the necessary 3.0 MEUs at sea. Actual figures are 9 LHD/LHAs, 10 LSDs, and 13 LPDs: 32 hulls, just one more than the Congress-mandated minimum of 31 ships.

The Navy has an up with Forward Deployed Naval Forces Japan (FDNF-J), which has three ‘phibs in Sasebo: USS San Diego (LPD 22), New Orleans (LPD 18), and Rushmore (LSD 47), that deploy with 31st MEU, typically underway for 2-3 months, in port for 2-3 months, and then out to sea for again for another 2-3 months, etc. But that still leaves them on the hook for the East and West Coast ARGs, and (6 working LHA/LHDs and 18 LPD/LSDs), however, with those hulls having something like a 50 percent availability for ships in “satisfactory” material condition, that’s a problem.

Worse, the LSDs are retiring, and incoming LPD numbers are not sufficient to replace them on a hull-for-hull basis.

Sure, the Navy is working on bumping up those numbers, but it is still an issue, and one that will get worse before it gets better.

Further, as any potential maintenance issue with the FDNF-J’s phibs could leave the 31st MEU hanging, Commandant Smith is asking the Navy to stage five gators from Sasebo to ensure three are ready to deploy at the drop of a hat or already underway. Yes, that would give 31st MEU some insurance, but it would have to come at the price of those other two deployed MEU/ARG combos.

Plus, while the Marines have two MLRs standing up, the Navy still doesn’t have the sealift to carry them to short, so there’s that.